Saturday 26th November – The Belling Crow

Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been posting tips here and back on All Things NIT, our former website. Overall results were mixed, with an average return on investment per selection of -1.7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,387 published selections, with no outstanding futures, and an average return on investment per selection +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium confidence picks (low confidence picks are in experimental markets for us these days).

Use these picks at your own risk. You are solely responsible for any money you lose and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gaming problem, get help.

Lines for these are from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time the selection is made, unless otherwise noted. For futures betting (both sports and politics) and motorsports betting, the odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which is currently not/exactly available online. KenPom is commonly used in the manufacture of college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is used heavily in the creation of soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in selecting NFL futures.

Today’s college basketball, today’s college football. football first:

Oregon @ Oregon State

Oregon state is good. Oregon State is tough. Oregon State has a lot to offer in terms of pride and dignity and finishing this year in the rankings, which psychologically represents a big threshold for programs.

But Oregon is a solidly better team. And Oregon has more to offer in terms of national stakes. And while the Ducks didn’t make it against Washington, they almost did. It was a little fluffy. We see them finishing the work today.

Choice: Oregon -1.5 (-115). Low Confidence.

State of Southeast Missouri @ Montana

Montana ended the year poorly, being beaten by their archrival in a moderate upset. However, they are heavy favorites in this playoff opener and should be favored by more according to Movelor. We ride the Grizz.

Choice: Montana -12 (-113). Low Confidence.

Bryant @ Syracuse

Syracuse was supposed to slow Bryant, but Bryant can shoot, but Bryant took that shot against a couple of low-majors and FAU. We trust the zone even when the team is struggling.

Tip: Below 161.5 (-105). Low Confidence.

State of South Carolina in western Kentucky

Western Kentucky is off to a good start, but it’s one of those good starts where the competition has been tough and not in the tough way. South Carolina State is an odd team in terms of pace, which can lead to inflated scores, but eventually that should factor into the numbers, and KenPom has that closer, so we’re confident in that.

Selection: State of South Carolina +24.5 (-114). Low Confidence.