Iowa Republicans dump Trump in a caucus poll for DeSantis

WASHINGTON — Iowa Republicans are turning their backs on former President Donald Trump in favor of rising star Ron DeSantis, according to a new poll.

A poll released Monday by Neighborhood Research and Media found that 32% of likely caucus-goers would make the 44-year-old Florida governor their first choice. Another 30% said their first choice would be the 76-year-old former president.

The result represents a 23-point swing in June’s poll, when Trump led DeSantis from 38% to 17% — and a 46-point swing from last November when the 45th president went from 56% to 12%. led.

“With half the support he had a year ago, at a time when DeSantis’ votes have nearly tripled, Trump becomes a strong outsider in the running,” wrote Rick Shaftan of Neighborhood Research and Media in his analysis.

Another 30% of respondents said they weren’t sure who their first choice would be, while no other potential candidate achieved double-digit support. Former Vice President Mike Pence would be the top choice of 3% of respondents, while former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Ben Carson, each were elected 1% support.

Opinion poll.
32% of likely caucus-goers would make Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis their first choice.
neighborhood research and media

When the second and third elections were counted — a key dynamic in a caucus state like Iowa — DeSantis had 48% support, Trump had 42%, Pence had 6%, and Noem had 3%.

The poll is the latest to show a growing dislike for the former commander in chief, who announced his third straight run at the White House on November 15.

On the same day, a Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted after the midterm elections showed that 65% of voters said Trump should “probably” or “definitely” not run — 53% said he “definitely” should not run should.

donald trump
In June, former President Donald Trump led DeSantis by 38% to 17%.
Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis’ voice has nearly tripled.
AFP via Getty Images

The Iowa poll also follows a recent national YouGov poll that found voters favor DeSantis over Trump by seven points. This poll, released Friday, was the first poll of the 2024 cycle to show the Florida governor among Republican voters across the country ahead of Trump.

The YouGov poll found that 42% of Republicans and GOP-affiliated independents preferred DeSantis over Trump to lead the party’s presidential ticket, while 35% remained loyal to Trump.

The Neighborhood Research and Media poll polled 393 likely Republican congressmen between Nov. 14 and 18. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.